On January 5th, 2012 Amvona published the article American Greetings Corp. and the Triple “W”. The thesis was comprised of two primary components:
a) The value and impact of the stock repurchases the company had made and would be making.
b) An appraisal of the real value of the company’s tangible assets.
The following is the price performance one year later of the two purchase made in the shares at the time.
*May The Lord rest the souls of those who have departed in the destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy, and console their loved ones.
On October 22nd, 2012 Western Digital Corp. released their Q1 2013 financial results. Here are a few key points that are worth noting:
Valuation Ratios: The cheapest Company in America?
"Citigroup‘s Joe Yoo today cut his ratings on hard drive and storage technology developers Seagate Technology (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) to Sell from Buy, writing that there is a chance of 25% downside to current estimates for the companies this quarter given what may be drastically lower volume of drive shipments. Yoo cut his Seagate target to $25 from $37, and cut his Western Digital target to $32 from $53. …For Western, his estimates go to $15.3 billion and $9.99 in EPS from a prior $15.84 billion and $10.68 per share."
STX, WDC Cut to Sell at Citi; Estimates Too High Amidst PC Slowdown (Tech Trader Daily, Oct. 12th, 2012)
Shares of Western Digital (WDC) were sold for investors accounts on August 13th, 2012 at $44. As of close of market on Friday Oct. 19th, the shares were being traded for a mere 34.88. A decline of a full $9.12 or almost 21% in barely 9 weeks. Is the value of the company really less than it was, when the shares recently traded at $44?
On April 25th, 2012 Amvona published the article "Corning from another perspective”. On May 2nd shares of Corning (GLW) were sold for investors accounts at $14.49 per share - a return of about ~13% in just over 4 months, or almost 38% annualized. The shares were not sold because it was thought that they were overvalued, rather it was to free up capital for the growing position in Western Digital (WDC) later discussed in the follow up article "Update: Western Digital Discusses Q4 2012 Results”.
On July 25th, 2012 Western Digital Corp. (WDC) announced their FY2012 results - and beat consensus EPS estimates of $2.47. In after hours trading on July 24th as well as today, the shares moved up slightly, so it seemed like a good time to take a look back at some of the Amvona analysis of the company.
On May 17th around 2 p.m. a call came in from a friend, he said he had just received a call from his broker, who asked him “what he wanted to do about Facebook’s IPO”. The response was intricate and subtle;
“wouldn't touch it with a hundred foot pole”
The advice was to consider buying Western Digital (WDC) instead if he had to buy something. Sensing that the answer may have been a bit curt, the following email was sent shortly after the phone call:
According to a research report published last Friday, Bank of America has downgraded Western Digital from Buy to Neutral, and lowered their target from $54 to $46. In the report, Bank of America said:
"WD reported significantly better than expected F3Q12 EPS at $2.52 vs. our/Street $1.60/1.55, driven by revenue and margin. WD guidance was disappointing (EPS of $2.35-2.55 vs. our/Street prior $2.67/2.30) and commentary pointed to softer demand than expected going forward, at current/elevated ASPs levels, and some pricing concessions (certain HGST customers, pre-acquisition). It appears the HDD industry can't have it both ways for much longer – pricing/margins at high levels, and expected strong demand, with assumed channel inventory refill. We step to the sidelines for now, despite attractive valuation."