Investment and Speculation are two very distinct activities. Speculators believe they can see into the future, and more particularly, believe they have some sense of future security prices. Investors accept that they do not have any special foresight, and instead focus on an entirely different set of criteria.
It is best not to speculate, since the foundation upon which speculative decisions are likely to be based are invariably little more than “best guesses”. If the urge to speculate cannot be resisted, consider giving 95% of your funds to a value-oriented investment manager who is well vetted and who you trust. Keep the other 5% and go to Vegas (at least you’ll have fond memories to make up for the loses).