Amvona

Shares of Western Digital (WDC) were sold for investors accounts on August 13th, 2012 at $44.  As of close of market on Friday Oct. 19th, the shares were being traded for a mere 34.88.  A decline of a full $9.12 or almost 21% in barely 9 weeks.  Is the value of the company really less than it was, when the shares recently traded at $44?

 

wdc chart 10-22-2012

Published in Finding Alpha

arrogance_2We were going to title this article “We’re so smart”, but we thought that there was at least a small possibility that readers would fail to appreciate the depth of our humility if we did that, so we went with the second most obvious title we could think of.  Besides after SeekingAlpha’s editors picked up our article “Houston, we've got a problem - Bevilacqua” a few weeks ago and exposed it to their 50 million visitors a month by featuring it on “Market Currents”, then selecting it as an “editors pick” once we did finally submit it to on our own, we began to think that our humility may actually not be as secure as we once thought.  

Published in Finding Alpha
cougar_ISS This article is a follow up on “If you must speculate: Force Protection Inc.”  published on April 15th, 2011 and is intended as a closer examination of the YTD 2011 FRPT order book, along with some additional speculation on the future growth prospects in 2011 and 2012.
 
In the above article we pointed out that the total worth of the company to a prospective acquirer was about 150 mln. as of April 15th (share price $4.54).  The stock has risen to $4.80 per share as of close of market on May 4th, 2011, a gain of some 5.7% in just under 3 weeks.
Published in Finding Alpha
 
speculation Investment and Speculation are two very distinct activities.  Speculators believe they can see into the future, and more particularly, believe they have some sense of future security prices.  Investors accept that they do not have any special foresight, and instead focus on an entirely different set of criteria. 

It is best not to speculate, since the foundation upon which speculative decisions are likely to be based are invariably little more than “best guesses”.  If the urge to speculate cannot be resisted, consider giving 95% of your funds to a value-oriented investment manager who is well vetted and who you trust.  Keep the other 5% and go to Vegas (at least you’ll have fond memories to make up for the loses).
Published in Finding Alpha

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