Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson

Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson

Greek Orthodox Priest – Assigned to the Holy Metropolis of Switzerland - Ecumenical Patriarchate

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Notes - November 17th - 2013

Monday, 02 December 2013 14:01 Published in Notes


Notes - November 17rd - 2013
9th Sunday of Luke (Gal. 2:16-20, Luke 12:16-21)
Saint Gregory the Wonderworker, Bishop of Neocaesarea
Tone of the week – Tone 4
Tenth Eothinon

Buying glass and other problems with interventions

Tuesday, 28 August 2012 16:20 Published in Finding Alpha

intervention - royal tenenbaumsOn April 25th, 2012 Amvona published the article "Corning from another perspective”.  On May 2nd shares of Corning (GLW) were sold for investors accounts at $14.49 per share - a return of about ~13% in just over 4 months, or almost 38% annualized.  The shares were not sold because it was thought that they were overvalued, rather it was to free up capital for the growing position in Western Digital (WDC) later discussed in the follow up article "Update: Western Digital Discusses Q4 2012 Results”.

Update: Western Digital Discusses Q4 2012 Results

Thursday, 26 July 2012 15:03 Published in Finding Alpha

On July 25th, 2012 Western Digital Corp. (WDC) announced their FY2012 results - and beat consensus EPS estimates of $2.47.  In after hours trading on July 24th as well as today, the shares moved up slightly, so it seemed like a good time to take a look back at some of the Amvona analysis of the company.



Image: Boston Real Estate Observer On June 22nd, 2012 the Massachusetts supreme court ruled on a very simple principle, that is to say a foreclosure by sale requires the foreclosing mortgagee, at the time of the sale, to hold both the mortgage and the underlying mortgage note.  the Case is Henrietta Eaton vs. Federal National Mortgage Association.


This may seem simple enough to the casual reader, except virtually no entities foreclosing on securitized mortgages in Massachusetts or elsewhere in the last five years (when the question has been especially relevant) possessed both of these items.

Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesOn May 17th around 2 p.m. a call came in from a friend, he said he had just received a call from his broker, who asked him “what he wanted to do about Facebook’s IPO”.    The response was intricate and subtle;


“wouldn't touch it with a hundred foot pole”


The advice was to consider buying Western Digital (WDC) instead if he had to buy something.    Sensing that the answer may have been a bit curt, the following email was sent shortly after the phone call:

on the sidelines 2According to a research report published last Friday, Bank of America has downgraded Western Digital from Buy to Neutral, and lowered their target from $54 to $46. In the report, Bank of America said:


"WD reported significantly better than expected F3Q12 EPS at $2.52 vs. our/Street $1.60/1.55, driven by revenue and margin. WD guidance was disappointing (EPS of $2.35-2.55 vs. our/Street prior $2.67/2.30) and commentary pointed to softer demand than expected going forward, at current/elevated ASPs levels, and some pricing concessions (certain HGST customers, pre-acquisition). It appears the HDD industry can't have it both ways for much longer – pricing/margins at high levels, and expected strong demand, with assumed channel inventory refill. We step to the sidelines for now, despite attractive valuation."

Corning from another perspective

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 10:36 Published in Finding Alpha

fiber_optic_cableOn December 19th, 2011 we began purchasing shares of Corning Inc. for investor accounts – these purchases were made at an average price of $12.73 per share.  Unfortunately we didn't have time to write an article explaining all of the reasons why we felt Corning represented a good value for investors, we did however mention the purchases in our February 1st, 2012 article The Prime Ministers "One Dollar" bets  when we published  our correspondence saying:


“haven’t always been able to publish all ideas (but always execute for friends and family) – for e.g. haven’t had time to write an article on it yet, but have also been buying GLW (mostly below 13).”

Did Seagate just tip Western Digital's hand?

Thursday, 19 April 2012 12:06 Published in Finding Alpha
DSM_IV_2Probably because of some yet-to-be-diagnosed neurosis our idea of a “good time” is listening to replays of company conference calls - the company’s that we own for investor accounts are a lot of fun, but our real interest is their competitors.

Recently when listening to the Q3 2012 CC for Seagate Technologies (at about 9 min and 35 sec. into the call), we stumbled across an interesting piece of information - Seagate indicated that the TAM (Total Addressable Market) in the March QTR was about 143 M units, which was above both the industry analyst and the company’s own expectations of 130-135 M units, mentioned by the company in their January CC. 
price_targetWe were waiting for at least a 7% price jump when we published our article Hard Drives, Floods, Monasteries and Investment Returns on Dec. 2nd , 2011 – good thing we weren’t holding our breath.  We thought the article looked pretty smart, not only because the WDC investment had already returned 30.2% to investors by the time we were able to publish, but also because we had this really crazy $67 dollar price target on the stock (way higher than any other analyst at the time) – we thought people would listen.

Update: How we made investors Money on Cisco

Monday, 20 February 2012 10:00 Published in Finding Alpha
On February 12th, 2011 we published our first article on Cisco Systems entitled "How we lost investors money on Cisco". The title was intended to be a pun for the readers (we weren't selling at a loss), as we quickly pointed out in the article..."We have no intentions of selling; on Monday we'll be buying for their accounts." The stock closed at $18.70 the day before the article was published.

We went on to make impressive sounding arguments about sociology like this artifice:

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